Bitcoin just made a new all-time high today, sitting pretty above $87,000 as of press time and on the blink of $88,000. The crypto market is now worth over $3 trillion for the first time in history, surging on the back of president Donald Trump’s election victory.
This momentum reflects a broader market response to recent political shifts and macroeconomic trends.
Polymarket has a hot new pair – the bet on whether BTC reaches $100K. In the post-election period, Polymarket is rebuilding its volumes, capitalizing on the latest BTC rally above $84,000.
Polymarket once again drew attention to its predictive powers. Bets on Bitcoin (BTC) breaking $100K are growing, leading to a vertical climb for the ‘Yes’ token. Just like the US election result, the approach of the possible event will accelerate bets. However, latecomers will have to enter the ‘Yes’ token at a higher price.
There are several bets active on BTC reaching six-digit prices. The bet that sparked a buying frenzy asks whether BTC will hit $100K by the end of the year. The chances based on token buying ranged between 49% and 53% as of November 11, rising rapidly within one day. The odds may change at any moment, while also reflecting the trend of greed and FOMO on the spot market.
The betting pair has $2.6M in volumes, a factor of 1,000 smaller than the size of political markets. At this range, the pair may be more volatile, or even easily swayed by whale activity.
Other predictions on the price of BTC do not follow strong convictions. The November betting pair only has 26% odds of reaching $100K from current price levels. For different price tiers, the bets are heating up on BTC reaching $90,000, with the ‘Yes’ token at 72%.
The BTC price is extremely dynamic and may be swayed in minutes. The currently available markets may not have the predictive power of the political bets, where the odds had more chances to be estimated.
Some of the markets show increasing demand and a shift in odds, potentially acting as a self-fulfilling signal for BTC. The November price bet to $100K rallied from 26% to 33% within minutes and may be the next pair to draw in buyers and traders.
The remaining smaller betting pairs do not draw in the same size of whales with million-dollar investments. For the BTC bet on crossing $100K in 2024, the largest bet holds 263,197 ‘no’ shares, while the largest positive bet holds 50,773 shares. Activity on the pair also circles around small-scale buying and scaling, with positions as low as $5.
Betting on the BTC price through Polymarket is also easier and cheaper, as Polygon still offers low-cost and simpler entry points. Direct leveraged betting on BTC may not be accessible to all, as Polymarket offers zero fees and a testing ground for small-scale users.
Even on the larger market for November bets, volumes are at around $9.3M for all price levels and positions.
There are no significant whales and the market does not seem to shed light on Bitcoin’s fundamentals.