Kenya’s exports to the United States have climbed to a three-year high, as traders rush to take advantage of the preferential terms under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) before they expire.
Between January and August 2025, Kenya shipped goods worth Sh50.87 billion to the US, the highest since 2022 when exports reached Sh52.25 billion over the same period.
The latest figures, released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), show that this marks the third consecutive year of growth in exports to the US.
“In August 2025, Uganda, the United States of America, and Pakistan were the leading export destinations, with export values amounting to Sh 11 billion, Sh 6.3 billion, and Sh 6 billion, respectively,” KNBS reported.
Kenya’s trade with the US has faced turbulence this year due to protectionist measures by President Donald Trump and uncertainty over the future of the AGOA deal.
On April 2, 2025, President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce a baseline tariff for all US trading partners, citing “absence of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships.” Kenya was hit with a 10 per cent tariff on its exports.
The non-renewal of AGOA could be a serious setback for Kenya, with projections by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicating that the country’s average weighted tariff with the US could nearly triple to 28 per cent.
Experts warn that this could negatively impact jobs and investments, particularly in the textile and apparel sector.
Trade data shows that more than half of Kenya’s exports to the US consist of clothing, macadamia, coffee, titanium ores and concentrates, and black tea. While textiles and apparel dominate Kenya’s AGOA exports, there have been ongoing efforts to diversify the product range. Kenya’s national AGOA strategy has urged expansion beyond the approximately 30 apparel product lines that currently dominate U.S. exports.
Around three-quarters of these shipments currently benefit from duty-free access under AGOA. The textile and apparel industry is the biggest beneficiary, earning Sh60.57 billion from US exports in 2024, a 19.2 per cent increase from Sh50.82 billion the previous year.
Business groups have called for a gradual approach to the AGOA transition to protect workers and investors.
The importance of AGOA extends far beyond trade figures—it’s a critical source of employment for thousands of Kenyan workers. Kenya’s Export Processing Zones (EPZ), which house the majority of textile and apparel manufacturing facilities, currently employ 75,598 workers according to Principal Secretary Dr. Juma Mukhwana. The textile and apparel sector creates 85% of jobs in these zones, making it the backbone of Kenya’s export-oriented manufacturing sector.
Workers at Kenya’s Export Processing Zones are facing potential job losses due to the Trump tariffs, which could override AGOA benefits. Dr. Mukhwana conceded that the measures announced by the U.S. leader could have wide-ranging implications for Kenya’s economy, stating: “If the tariffs override the AGOA benefits, it could reduce Kenya’s trade advantage.”
The Kenya Private Sector Alliance and the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya have urged a two-year adjustment period. AGOA, introduced in 2000 to help developing countries reduce reliance on aid, was originally meant to last 15 years but was extended to June 2025.
Its renewal would require approval from the US Congress, currently controlled by President Trump’s Republican Party.
The 10 percent baseline tariff imposed by the Trump administration represents a significant shift from the preferential treatment Kenya has enjoyed. Previously, Kenya’s exports to the U.S. faced an average tariff of just 0.3 percent, largely due to AGOA benefits. The new tariff rate increases duties on Kenyan exports by more than 30-fold, potentially affecting the competitiveness of Kenyan products in the American market.
Kenya’s trade challenges with the U.S. reflect broader shifts in global trade dynamics. The Trump administration’s tariff policies have affected numerous African countries, with some facing even higher rates than Kenya. For example, South Africa faces a 30 percent export tax, while Lesotho—which depends heavily on textile exports—has been hit with a 50 percent reciprocal tariff.
The uncertainty surrounding AGOA’s renewal affects not just Kenya but the entire sub-Saharan African region. Thirty-two countries are currently eligible for AGOA benefits, and the program has been credited with creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent.
