Good Evening East Africa. Welcome to another edition of Julisha Weekly, your byte-sized briefing on the regional business, economy, and power plays. A briefing on Binance account closures in Nairobi, to a gold-buying spree in Kampala, a look at what's happening in Dar Es Salaam and the progress in Kigali.

It’s a lot. We’ve broken it down into what actually matters. All organic, no ads.

Kenyan authorities freeze Binance accounts in major crypto crackdown

Kenya’s Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI), operating under the National Police Service, has ordered the freezing of multiple user accounts on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The move is part of a broader crackdown on suspected financial crimes and signals a shift toward tighter regulation of the country’s fast-growing crypto sector.

Binance complied with the directive, restricting access to affected accounts and instructing users to contact Kenyan law enforcement for further details. Notably, many users report that no formal charges have been filed, no complainants identified, and no timelines provided for resolution.

Authorities say the freeze is linked to suspected financial crimes, including fraud, money laundering, and potential terrorism financing. Some accounts were flagged through cross-border investigations, indicating international cooperation.

A major focus appears to be peer-to-peer (P2P) trading, a popular method in Kenya for converting crypto into cash. Regulators are increasingly concerned that these decentralized channels are being used for illicit financial flows.

The impact on users has been severe. Many have been locked out of their funds for weeks or months, disrupting businesses and personal finances. The backlash has been swift, with traders launching a social media campaign under #BinanceUnmasked, criticizing both the government and Binance for lack of transparency and due process.

Binance has defended its actions, stating it is a compliance-driven platform that works closely with governments. In 2025 alone, the company handled over 71,000 law enforcement requests globally and helped seize hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit funds.

Kenya's Non Tax Revenue Slips

Kenya’s non-tax revenue is showing signs of strain after four years of growth, with Treasury data indicating that collections from sources such as service fees, licences, fines, royalties, and surplus remittances from State agencies fell 10.65% to Sh109.3 billion in the nine months to March 2026, down from Sh122.3 billion a year earlier.

The decline is the first under President William Ruto’s administration and marks a reversal from the previous financial year, when non-tax receipts surged by 135.15%, boosted by what now appear to have been one-off inflows.

Last year’s sharp jump was less a new normal than an exceptional windfall, driven by aggressive collection of surplus cash from semi-autonomous State agencies, stronger citizen-service fees, and investment income from government-linked entities.

Non-tax revenue has become an increasingly important pressure valve for the Exchequer as the government seeks funding beyond traditional taxes. The State has pushed agencies to surrender up to 90% of surplus funds, while also expanding the e-Citizen platform as a central channel for collecting payments for public services.

Those steps helped collections remain above historical levels, with non-tax receipts still crossing Sh100 billion for a second straight nine-month period, but the latest slowdown shows how difficult it may be to sustain growth once the easy gains from digitisation and surplus remittances are exhausted.

Kenya proposes strict affordability rules to rein in digital lending boom

Kenyan regulators are moving to overhaul the country’s fast-growing digital lending sector with sweeping reforms that will require lenders to assess a borrower’s ability to repay before issuing loans. The proposed rules are part of the March 2026 Financial Consumer Protection Framework backed by the Central Bank of Kenya, Capital Markets Authority, and Communications Authority of Kenya.

The framework will apply across major financial institutions including KCB Group, Equity Bank, and Co-operative Bank of Kenya, as well as telecom-backed platforms like M-Shwari and Fuliza, and fintech lenders such as Tala and Branch.

Instead of relying primarily on behavioral algorithms, lenders will now be required to assess income, expenses, and existing debt using verifiable financial data. The reforms come as the sector has exploded, with 227 licensed digital lenders issuing 7.5 million loans worth KES 133.5 billion (about $1.03 billion). However, default rates have surged, exceeding 80 percent for loans under KES 1,000 (about $7.70) and nearly 69 percent for loans between KES 1,000–5,000 (about $7.70–$38.50).

The new rules will also require lenders to engage distressed borrowers and offer restructuring options before enforcing repayment.

Kenya Walks Away From Costly UAE Loan

Kenya has opted not to draw the remaining Sh129.2 billion ($1 billion) from a Sh193.8 billion ($1.5 billion) United Arab Emirates loan facility, citing its relatively high 8.25% pricing and improved access to cheaper financing alternatives.

Treasury officials said the balance of the seven-year facility is now effectively off the table after Kenya previously accessed Sh64.6 billion ($500 million) in April 2025, when global borrowing conditions were tighter and concessional funding options were limited.

Rather than rely on expensive bilateral commercial credit, Nairobi is now targeting lower-cost funding from institutions such as the World Bank, whose Development Policy Operations loans remain central to financing the current fiscal year’s external borrowing needs.

The move comes as Kenya’s market position has strengthened, with Eurobond yields for notes maturing in 2028, 2031, and 2034 falling below or near the UAE loan’s coupon, suggesting investors now view Kenyan sovereign risk more favourably than a year ago.

Treasury officials have also reiterated that financing choices will be driven by economics, despite the UAE’s growing strategic footprint in Kenya through oil supply agreements, disaster aid pledges, and broader state-to-state engagement.

Kenya projects Sh225.8 billion in net external financing needs, while domestic borrowing will shoulder the bulk of the 6.4% fiscal deficit at Sh998.6 billion for the 2025/26 fiscal year. In an era of elevated debt scrutiny, governments are increasingly treating capital markets, multilaterals, and bilateral lenders as competing funding sources, and price discipline is becoming as important as geopolitics.

CBK Sticks With Domestic Borrowing Plan Despite Setback

The Central Bank of Kenya is pressing ahead with its plan to refinance maturing debt through switch bond sales, even after investors largely rejected the latest offer, signalling that the State still sees the instrument as central to managing near-term repayment pressure.

CBK Governor Kamau Thugge said the weak uptake in the April 13 auction was less a rejection of the strategy itself and more a reflection of unsettled market conditions tied to the Iran war and the uncertainty it has injected into interest-rate expectations.

In that sale, investors were offered the option of swapping Sh20 billion from a 10-year bond maturing in August into a 15-year paper due in 2033. Only Sh1.75 billion was rolled over, leaving the Treasury to repay Sh18.2 billion in cash. The maturing bond pays 15.04%, while the longer replacement paper offers 12.65%, making the switch less attractive at a time when investors are increasingly reluctant to lock into lower returns.

It still intends to carry out two more switch operations before June, targeting a three-year bond maturing in January 2027 and a 15-year bond maturing in September 2027, with outstanding values of Sh91.6 billion and Sh90.94 billion, respectively.

The broader objective is to extend maturities, reduce refinancing risk, and avoid liquidity stress from large, clustered repayments. That liability-management logic had worked earlier in the year, with the January switch attracting Sh25.17 billion against a Sh20 billion target and the March switch drawing Sh18.4 billion against a Sh15 billion target.

After months of rate-cut expectations driven by CBK’s aggressive easing cycle, investors are now reassessing the direction of yields following the central bank’s decision to pause at 8.75% and rising fears of inflation from higher energy costs.

Kenya’s shilling faces mounting pressure as Iran conflict drives global oil prices higher

Kenya’s currency is increasingly under strain as the effects of the Iran conflict ripple through global energy markets, pushing oil prices upward and exposing vulnerabilities in import-dependent economies. Major global financial institutions and market strategists are warning that Kenya, one of East Africa’s largest fuel importers, could face intensified macroeconomic stress if the conflict persists.

As crude oil prices climb, Kenya’s import bill is expanding sharply, feeding directly into domestic inflation. Higher fuel costs are already cascading through transport, manufacturing, and food prices, creating a broad-based increase in the cost of living. Analysts tracking the Kenyan shilling say risks are now skewed toward depreciation, especially if global energy markets remain volatile.

The knock-on effect is complex. Rising inflation may force the Central Bank of Kenya to tighten monetary policy through interest rate hikes, which could stabilize the currency but also slow economic growth. At the same time, foreign investors are reassessing exposure to frontier markets like Kenya, raising the possibility of capital outflows and increased borrowing costs. Policymakers may need to intervene in foreign exchange markets or seek external financing to stabilize reserves.

Bank of Uganda launches gold-buying program to strengthen foreign reserves

The Bank of Uganda has begun a three-year pilot program to purchase domestically mined gold, marking a significant shift in how the country manages its foreign exchange reserves. The initiative officially kicked off on April 17, 2026, with the central bank buying gold directly from licensed local miners using Ugandan shillings, while pegging prices to international market rates.

The plan involves refining the purchased gold through certified local refineries to meet global standards before adding it to national reserves. The central bank is targeting at least 100 kilograms in the early phase, with ambitions to scale up to between 7 and 10 tonnes annually. At current global prices, that could translate into reserve assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

To ensure credibility and transparency, the Bank of Uganda has implemented strict traceability measures, including a chain-of-custody system, while also securing compliance through a Mineral Dealer’s Licence and registration with the Financial Intelligence Authority.

Beyond reserve accumulation, the program aims to formalize Uganda’s gold sector, reduce smuggling, and create a stable domestic market for miners, many of whom operate informally.

Rwanda shifts export focus to China as traditional markets weaken

Rwanda is pivoting toward China as an alternative export destination amid weakening demand in traditional markets such as Europe, the UK, and the Middle East. Exporters, particularly in horticulture, are facing declining prices and rising competition from countries like Kenya and South Africa.

Global disruptions, including geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes, have increased logistics costs and created uncertainty around delivery timelines. Against this backdrop, China is emerging as a stable and high-potential market, driven by its large consumer base and growing demand for agricultural products.

A major driver of this shift is China’s zero-tariff policy for African exports, which is expected to improve competitiveness and margins for Rwandan goods such as avocados, coffee, tea, and chili. Government agencies like the National Agricultural Export Development Board are actively supporting exporters through market development and scaling production.

Uganda and South Sudan agree to install cargo scanners to ease border congestion

Uganda and South Sudan have agreed to deploy cargo scanners at key border crossings, including the busy Nimule–Elegu route, to address chronic congestion and improve trade efficiency. The corridor is one of the most critical for regional commerce, linking Ugandan exports to South Sudan’s markets.

The introduction of cargo scanners will significantly reduce reliance on manual inspections, speeding up clearance times and lowering logistics costs for traders. The technology will also enhance detection of smuggling and undeclared goods, improving revenue collection and transparency for both governments.

This initiative builds on earlier reforms such as electronic cargo tracking systems and broader efforts to modernize customs operations across the region. South Sudan remains one of Uganda’s largest export destinations, making efficient border management a shared economic priority.

Tanzania’s tourism sector surges to 5.9 million visitors with eyes set on 8 million by 2030

Tanzania recorded 5.9 million tourist arrivals by December 2025, according to Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism Dr Ashatu Kijaji, who announced the figures in Arusha. The government now targets 8 million annual visitors by 2030 while increasing tourism’s GDP contribution from 17% to 20%.

The 2024/25 breakdown shows 2.14 million international tourists and 3.22 million domestic visitors, highlighting strong local demand. Growth has been driven by policy reforms, improved regulation, and aggressive marketing campaigns like The Royal Tour film, which boosted global visibility.

The government is now focusing on enhancing service delivery, expanding tourism offerings, and ensuring local communities benefit economically.

East Africa remains Africa’s fastest-growing region as economies accelerate

East Africa has once again cemented its position as the fastest-growing region on the continent, according to the latest Africa Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook report released by the African Development Bank (AfDB). The numbers are not just strong, they are consistent. The region’s real GDP growth is estimated at 6.4% in 2025 and is expected to hold at 6.4% in 2026 before slightly easing to 6.3% in 2027.

What makes this growth story powerful is how broad it is. Out of 13 East African economies tracked by AfDB, seven will grow above 4% in 2025, rising to nine countries in both 2026 and 2027. Ethiopia leads the pack with projected growth of 9.8%, followed by Rwanda at 7.3%, Uganda at 7.8%, and Tanzania at 6.1%.

Uganda’s case stands out further with inflation projected at a stable 4.2%, signaling improving macroeconomic discipline. Compared to other regions, East Africa is far ahead, with West Africa projected at 4.6% growth and North Africa at 4.2% in 2026.

This growth is being driven by heavy infrastructure investments, recovery from global shocks, and rising productivity in service sectors.

Rising global disruptions push East African import costs higher

Importers across East Africa are facing a sharp rise in costs driven by global shipping disruptions, currency weakness, and structural inefficiencies in regional trade systems.

The biggest shock is coming from the Red Sea crisis, forcing ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to delivery times and significantly increasing freight costs.

Locally, the region already struggles with high logistics costs, averaging $1.8 per kilometre, nearly double global benchmarks. Combined with weakening currencies against the US dollar, importers are paying more at every stage.

Non-tariff barriers, border delays, and regulatory inconsistencies continue to add billions of dollars in hidden costs annually.

These pressures are hitting key sectors, including fuel, food, and industrial goods, forcing businesses to either raise prices or absorb shrinking margins.