Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) President Nelson Havi argues that President William Ruto is in a tight spot after the High Court in Nairobi granted the Azimio La Umoja coalition majority-ship in the National Assembly.
The move by the court elicited varied reactions, with some of the honchos of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a founder member of Azimio, demanding the Raila Odinga-led party to run with the court's ruling.
Siaya governor James Orengo asked the ODM party to take up the majority position in the lower legislative house.
The governor seemed to court the ODM lawmakers into ousting Ruto from office, saying the High Court ruling showed the president's win in 2022 was not procedural.
"What the High Court said was the confirmation that the election results announced in 2022 were not correct; I am asking my party ODM not to lose this thing that the High Court has decided. Don't leave it; instead of sitting on the table with those in power, the court is giving you what belongs to you, what are we giving up?" Orengo posed.
Orengo's sentiments were underscored by Havi, who explained that Ruto might soon be impeached in a similar way to his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
According to Havi, by sanctioning Gachagua, Ruto was setting grounds for his own political predicament.
The lawyer observed that the ODM lawmakers might soon mobilise themselves and the others from across the aisle in the House to impeach Ruto.
The situation might be catalysed by the outcome of the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship vote, in which Raila is among the contestants.
According to the lawyer, should Raila flunk the continental vote, he might marshal his troops to trouble Ruto.
"We told President William Ruto that the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua was a preparatory act for his eventual impeachment by ODM but he never listened. The following weeks and months will be nights of long swords. It will be more calamitous if Raila Odinga loses the AU election," Havi said.
The AUC chairmanship vote is coming up on February 15; the African heads of state will convene in Addis Ababa to cast their votes.
Raila will face off with Djibouti's Mahmoud Youssouf and Riachard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.
A three-judge bench declared the Raila Odinga led Azimio la Umoja coalition as the majority party in the National Assembly.
In their ruling issued on Friday, February 7, Justices John Chigiti, Lawrence Mugambi and Jairus Ngaah overturned a ruling that had been issued by NA Speaker Moses Wetang'ula who ruled that President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza was the majority side.
The judges noted that the Speaker violated the constitution in his decision.
In particular, the judges stated that the speaker counted some parties which had defected from Azimio in favour of Kenya Kwanza.
The bench also added that there was no evidence to show that there was a post-election agreement between the defected parties and Kenya Kwanza.
“The Speaker cannot fault the Registrar of Political Parties. She could not provide what she did not have. The Speaker ought to have presented the agreements that were allegedly submitted during the debate. Without the post-election coalition agreements, he had no basis for his decision,” the court ruled.
On the other hand, the three-judge bench dealt Wetang'ula a blow when the judges ruled that he could not be the speaker and the party leader of Ford Kenya at the same time.
“The dual role is unlawful and unconstitutional. Once he became Speaker of the National Assembly, he ceased to be the leader of Ford Kenya," the judges ruled.
Following the ruling, a section of leaders have pushed for the Speaker to effect changes based on the ruling by the court.
