For Chelsea, the season has been a mess. Two managers sacked, a Club World Cup win followed by Premier League collapse, and a ninth-place table position that tells the story of a club adrift. But on Saturday afternoon at Wembley, 90 minutes can rewrite it all. Beat Manchester City in the FA Cup final, and Chelsea are back in Europe. Lose, and it’s a summer without continental football for the first time in years.
For Manchester City, the stakes are different but just as heavy. Pep Guardiola’s side is chasing a domestic treble. The Carabao Cup is already in the cabinet. The Premier League is within two points of Arsenal with two games left. And this is City’s fourth consecutive FA Cup final, a feat no English club has ever achieved. Win here, and the treble stays alive. Lose, and it’s a third straight final defeat at Wembley.
This is the first time Chelsea and City have met in an FA Cup final, even though between them they’ve appeared in five of the last six. Chelsea have lifted the trophy eight times, City seven. But recent history favours one side heavily.
City haven’t lost to Chelsea in any of the last 13 meetings across all competitions, winning 10 and drawing three since that 2021 Champions League final. It’s Chelsea’s longest winless run against an opponent since the Arsenal drought of the late 90s and early 2000s. The Blues have also lost each of their last three FA Cup finals, from 2020 to 2022.
City’s own Wembley record in finals is patchy. They lost to Crystal Palace last year and Manchester United the year before, having won it in 2023. Erling Haaland has yet to score in nine semi-final or final appearances for City, including the Community Shield. Wembley is the only stadium he’s played at more than twice without scoring, with 11 shots across eight games.
Chelsea arrive as the underdog, and that might suit them. Interim manager Calum McFarlane has had a full week to prepare, while Guardiola’s side played Crystal Palace on Wednesday and face Bournemouth three days after the final. Guardiola admitted the schedule could be a factor: “Chelsea have a week at home training, preparing the final. We have to travel to London. They will be at home with their wife and kids. So that is fatigue and fatigue and fatigue.”
Injuries are a factor too. Chelsea will be without Estevao, Jesse Derry and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, but Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho and Robert Sanchez trained this week and could return. For City, Rodri remains a doubt with a groin injury. Nico Gonzalez, who scored the semi-final winner against Southampton, is back and could partner Bernardo Silva if Rodri misses out. Guardiola rested Haaland, Cherki and Doku against Palace, and all three are expected to start.
Chelsea’s route to Wembley included wins over Charlton, Hull, Wrexham, Port Vale and a 1-0 semi-final defeat of Leeds thanks to Enzo Fernandez’s header. City beat Exeter, Salford, Newcastle, Liverpool and Southampton, with late goals from Jeremy Doku and Nico Gonzalez sealing the semi.
For City, it’s silverware and momentum. A win keeps the treble alive and gives Guardiola his 17th major trophy at the club and 35th overall. Bernardo Silva and John Stones, both expected to leave, could be playing their last final for the club. Guardiola himself hasn’t confirmed his future beyond this season.
For Chelsea, it’s survival in Europe. Ninth in the Premier League with 49 points from 36 games, their only route to continental competition is winning the FA Cup. The Europa League spot goes to the winner, and that changes the summer entirely. It means European revenue, a better pitch to attract players, and a reason for the squad to believe the rebuild isn’t starting from scratch.
The tactical battle is clear. City dominate possession, averaging 78% in last year’s final loss to Palace. Chelsea will likely sit deep, press in transitions, and look to Enzo Fernandez and Cole Palmer to create moments. Fernandez has won nine of the 10 finals he’s played in his career.
History suggests it won’t be a goal fest. Sixteen of the last 19 FA Cup finals at the new Wembley have had fewer than four goals in 90 minutes. The pressure of the occasion tends to tighten games, not open them up.
