Senegal arrive at BMO Field with their World Cup 2026 campaign on the brink. Pape Thiaw’s side must beat Iraq, and they probably need to do it convincingly, to have any chance of finishing among the eight best third-placed teams and advancing to the knockout rounds.
It’s a steep task. After two games, Senegal sit bottom of Group I with zero points and also bottom of the third-placed table across all 12 groups. Iraq are right there with them, also pointless and on a minus-six goal difference after heavy losses to Norway and France. Even three points might not be enough for Usood al-Rafidayn, but it’s their only shot at a first World Cup appearance since 1986 ending on a high.
Senegal’s tournament started with promise but has been defined by mistakes. Against France they looked competitive in the first half and created chances, but couldn’t finish. Kylian Mbappe made them pay after the break and the 2018 champions pulled away for a 2-1 win.
The Norway game was worse. A series of defensive lapses allowed Erling Haaland’s team to win 3-2. Captain Kalidou Koulibaly had a night to forget and was taken off in the 72nd minute after struggling against Norway’s press. Ismaila Sarr and Nicolas Jackson did score, but the defensive errors overshadowed everything.
That pattern has followed Senegal beyond the tournament. They’ve conceded three goals in three of their last four matches in all competitions, with only a 0-0 draw against Saudi Arabia offering any defensive relief.
Edouard Mendy will also be missing after picking up a knee injury against Norway, so Mory Diaw is set to start in goal. Thiaw now has a big decision in central defense. He can back Koulibaly to lead in a must-win game, or turn to Chelsea’s Mamadou Sarr or Abdoulaye Seck after the recent errors. Up front, Sadio Mane has yet to take over a game but did set up one of Sarr’s goals last time out, while Jackson should keep his place after registering an assist against Norway.
Iraq have their own issues. Graham Arnold’s side have scored only once in two games, that goal coming from Aymen Hussein, who now looks doubtful after going off injured before the half-hour mark.
Losing Hussein would hurt badly. He scored eight times in qualifying and is Iraq’s only scorer at these finals. Without him, Arnold may hand Mohanad Ali his first World Cup start. Ali has 27 international goals and is the most experienced option alongside Ali Al-Hamadi. Creativity will fall to Zidane Iqbal and Amjad Qasem.
Results have been tough since a 1-0 friendly win over Andorra in May. Iraq held Spain to a draw, lost 2-0 to Venezuela, and then conceded seven goals across defeats to Norway and France at the tournament.
They have two wins from six in 2026 and little momentum, but they will still come to play because a win, even if it probably isn’t enough, would matter to a squad making a rare return to the global stage.
This matchup looks open because both defenses have been vulnerable and both attacks have shown they can score.
Senegal have more firepower out wide with Sarr and Mane, and Jackson gives them a physical presence through the middle.
Iraq will likely have to chase the game because of their goal difference, and that could leave space for Senegal’s transition play.
At the same time, Senegal cannot afford another slow start or another set of individual errors at the back. If Koulibaly starts, this is his chance to answer the criticism. If Thiaw changes it, the new pairing must settle quickly.
The equation is simple for Senegal: win, and win big. They are currently 12th of 12 in the third-placed standings, with Czech Republic in 8th on one point. Goal difference will likely decide it, so a 1-0 victory may not be enough.
Expect an aggressive start from Senegal and an Iraq team that has to take risks. That should produce chances at both ends. If Senegal tighten up at the back and finish the chances they missed against France and Norway, they have the quality to take all three points. If not, another slip could send them home.
Projected lineups
Senegal — Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; Camara, I. Gueye, P. Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mane.
Iraq — Basil; Ali, Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismail, Al-Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, Al-Hamadi, Bayesh.