Malawi’s presidential race is tilting decisively in favour of Arthur Peter Mutharika, the 85-year-old opposition leader seeking a comeback five years after his ouster.
Partial results place the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate well ahead of incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, whose pastor-turned-politician image has faltered amid economic stagnation.
With 24 of 36 councils declared, Mutharika has secured 2.14 million votes—about 67 per cent of valid ballots—leaving Chakwera trailing far behind, according to the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC).
Turnout stood at just under 3.3 million voters. About 2.5 per cent of ballots were declared void, a sign of weaknesses in voter education or electoral management.
Almost irreversible.
Mathematically, the outcome now appears almost irreversible. To surpass the constitutional 50%+1 threshold, Mutharika requires only 205,841 additional votes from the 12 remaining councils, among them the influential Mangochi, Blantyre, and Lilongwe.
Chakwera’s fading prospects underscore the collapse of the once-potent Tonse Alliance, the coalition that carried him to victory in 2020 after the Constitutional Court annulled Mutharika’s disputed 2019 win.
The rivalry between the two leaders has come full circle.
Mutharika ruled from 2014 to 2020 but was removed in a court-ordered rerun that elevated Chakwera to the presidency.
In an ironic twist, Jane Ansah—the former electoral commission chair criticised for mismanaging that election—is now Mutharika’s running mate, a striking symbol of Malawi’s recurring political realignments.
Chakwera’s failure to rein in inflation, fuel shortages, and corruption scandals has eroded his support. His once-broad coalition has fractured, leaving him politically vulnerable.
Mutharika’s comeback, fuelled by nostalgia and a perception of steadier leadership, points not only to a likely return to Kamuzu Palace but also to a reshaping of Malawi’s fragile yet resilient democracy.
