Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is seeking his seventh term in office in the January 15 presidential election that kicks off Africa’s 2026 election calendar.

He and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) party are running on the campaign theme of “Protecting the Gains: Making a Qualitative Leap into High Middle-Income Status.”

This election cycle marks the 40th anniversary of the former revolutionary military leader’s tenure in power—the third longest on the continent, following Teodoro Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea and Paul Biya in Cameroon.

The 81-year-old Museveni has extended his time in office by eliminating previously established term limits in 2005 and 2017. Museveni’s campaign this year is also shadowed by the increasingly prominent role played by his son, 51-year-old Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Now the Chief of Defense Forces following a series of rapid promotions, Kainerugaba is widely viewed as being groomed for the presidency as part of a carefully orchestrated hereditary succession.

As in the 2021 election, when the opposition faced up to 3,000 abductions and 54 fatalities (plus 18 who remain unaccounted for), the 2026 election process has been characterized by intimidation and violence directed against the opposition. Hundreds of opposition supporters have been detained, and opposition rallies often face active disruption, including roadblocks, arbitrary arrests, tear gassing, and the use of water cannons against supporters by police. Injuries and fatalities have been reported at multiple opposition campaign rallies with the police using live rounds at times.

The violence is so pervasive that the leading opposition candidate, Bobi Wine of the National Unity Party (NUP), has likened the campaign to a war zone. In May 2025, Kainerugaba publicly boasted of personally torturing Wine’s chief bodyguard, Edward Sebuufu (aka Eddie Mutwe), who had been abducted 5 days earlier.

The persistent intimidation has prompted the Chairperson of the Ugandan Electoral Commission (EC), Justice Simon Mugenyi Byabakama, to condemn the violence and reiterate that all presidential candidates are lawfully allowed to campaign anywhere in Uganda.

Bobi Wine is by far the most prominent of the opposition candidates. As in the 2021 campaign, the 43-year-old candidate has drawn large crowds wherever he speaks. The popular pop star has galvanized the youth vote around themes of restoring democracy and constitutionalism, fighting corruption, and creating jobs for youth through economic reform.

An estimated 33 million of Uganda’s 46 million population are under the age of 30, including 10.7 million voters. As in other African countries with large, youthful populations, young people are the leading edge of demands for political and economic reform.

Surveys indicate that unemployment and corruption are the leading concerns for Ugandan voters. Uganda ranks 140 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index. The country’s overall unemployment rate stands at 12.6 percent, while youth unemployment is 43 percent. Only 90,000 out of 700,000 graduates each year can find employment in the formal sector. Uganda’s annual per capita income of $987 has grown by an average of 1.8 percent over the past 4 years.

Perhaps the most vital issue to watch in the 2026 election is the degree of transparency surrounding the vote counting. In 2021, rather than reporting electoral results by each polling station as required by law, the EC announced results by region. This limited the scope for validating these results and created widespread skepticism around the announced tally of a Museveni victory, with 58 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. While the exact figures remain disputed, the NUP did gain majorities in the key population centers of Kampala, Buganda (central Uganda), and Busoga (eastern Uganda). Opposition party members of parliament now collectively control roughly 100 seats out of the 556-seat legislative body.

Reflective of the concerns for security and transparency, on November 25, 2025, faith leaders under the Inter-Religious Council of Uganda called for measures to safeguard peace, justice, and integrity in the elections. On December 3, Father Deusdedit Ssekabira, a Catholic priest from the city of Masaka, was abducted. The military confirmed nearly 2 weeks later that he was being held in a military prison for “subversive activities,” charges the Masaka Diocese has denied.

The political environment is already heating up and is likely to grow even more hostile toward opponents of President Museveni’s long-standing rule, as well as media outlets and civil society organizations perceived to be critical of the regime. In recent months, opposition leaders have faced escalating harassment, including arbitrary arrests and detentions on politically motivated charges.

Meanwhile, civil society organizations are under increasing pressure, with tighter regulations and heightened surveillance aimed at curbing their ability to influence the political process. At the same time, the regime continues to exploit the power of incumbency—mobilizing state resources, manipulating public institutions, and restricting access to media and public spaces––to entrench its dominance and suppress dissent ahead of the elections.

To many Ugandans, these are common tactics that President Museveni and the ruling NRM party have repeatedly employed to secure electoral victories. The ongoing campaign of arrests and intimidation against opposition leaders significantly undermines their ability to organize, campaign and connect with voters. Simultaneously, the regime appears intent on shielding the electoral process from scrutiny by restricting civic engagement and imposing stringent regulations on civil society organizations that play essential roles in voter education, election monitoring, and political advocacy.

The abuse of state resources and public institutions further enables the NRM to dominate media coverage, expand patronage networks, and deploy security forces to enforce political loyalty, all of which have collectively eroded the possibility of a democratic electoral process. According to recent surveys, majority of Ugandans do not believe the process will be free and fair, however the electoral body has reassured the citizenry that it will adhere to the constitution and conduct a free, fair, peaceful general election. This remains to be seen.

As the 2026 elections draw closer, many Ugandans remain deeply uncertain about the country’s future. As in previous electoral cycles, the military, police, and intelligence agencies are once again becoming entangled in partisan activities—arresting and detaining opposition activists, disrupting campaign events, and enforcing selective restrictions on political gatherings. The regime has systematically stifled civil society and independent media, creating a climate of fear and suppressing critical voices. Security agencies continue to play a central role in obstructing opposition mobilization, effectively narrowing the political space and undermining prospects for democratic participation. With these patterns repeating and tensions escalating, all indicators point toward a highly volatile and potentially violent general election.

The election in Uganda is in many ways a microcosm of the sharp crosscurrents shaping the political space in Africa. Long-dominant parties are attempting to hold onto power despite waning popularity and growing demands for greater pluralism from a restive, youthful population that has known only one leader. The question for Ugandans is whether elections will be a catalyst for reform and democratic self-correction—or more of the same.